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This is undisputed science and it clearly increases the potential for extreme rainfall and flooding.” It is undeniably true that warmer air can hold more moisture, just as warmer oceans increase the moisture content of the atmosphere by about six per cent for every 1C warming.
In simple terms, the more moisture there is in the atmosphere, the more additional energy it contains, said Dame Julia Sligo, the chief scientist at the Met Office.
Paul Williams, meteorologist at Reading University, explained: “Simple physics tells us that warmer air can hold more water vapour.
It's going to bring local spot flooding into the south and south-west but as it moves northwards into that cold air it is going to turn to snow and we're expecting large accumulations over Connacht, the midlands and much of Leinster too.
“However El Niño is just one of many drivers that affect the UK weather and there are many other factors which could override this signal,” said a Met Office spokesperson.
However, those who continue to deny the connection between extreme rainfall in the UK and climate change are looking increasingly undermined by the growing evidence, said Professor Myles Allen of Oxford University.
Scientists are not able to categorically prove such cause and effect.
However, a study already submitted to a peer-reviewed journal has suggested that climate change has increased the chances of Desmond-like storms by about 40 per cent – give or take a rather large margin of error.
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Some scientists have suggested a possible link with the south-westerly “kink” in the jet stream over the Atlantic, which is sending warm, wet air to the UK.